Alright so last season I decided to really dive into picking winners at Belmont. Not just betting on favorites, trying to find those underdogs, the value picks. Heard all the “free pick” talk online, figured I’d test it myself. Needed a system, something beyond gut feeling.
My Starting Point: Feeling Lost
First thing? Total mess. Flipping between apps, scrolling endless forums, tips everywhere. Some dude screaming about a “lock” in race 3, another swearing by trainer angles. Felt overwhelming, honestly. I knew I needed focus. Grabbed a cheap notebook – old school, right? Started simple:
- Wrote down every single pick I saw floating around for Belmont that day.
- Ignored the hype. Didn’t matter if someone claimed it was a “sure thing.” Everything went in the book, just the horse number and race.
- Set a tiny budget. Like, coffee money tiny. No way was I risking rent chasing free advice.
The Process: Tracking Like a Madman
Went to the track that Saturday. Didn’t bet on everything, just observed. Watched the races, scribbled like crazy:
- Who actually won? Marked it big next to the listed picks for that race.
- Noticed the obvious losers. Some touted picks ran dead last. Made a sad face next to those.
- Looked for patterns in the chatter. Realized certain forums or “tipsters” constantly pushed longshots with no chance, probably inflating odds for someone else betting bigger.
Did this for weeks. Every Belmont race day. Notebook got greasy, filled with question marks and exclamation points. Lost some small bets testing theories. Won a couple, small change.
The Trick That Actually Worked (For Me)
After maybe a month of tracking, something clicked. Forget blindly following one source. The real trick was contradiction spotting.
- Found consistent sources: Maybe 2 or 3 names or places where their “free picks” actually hit reasonably often, maybe 40%.
- Looked where they overlapped. When the same horse popped up as a strong pick from multiple decent sources I trusted based on my data? That became my signal.
- Paid attention when these sources disagreed. Sometimes it meant a race was super tough, avoid it. Other times, it highlighted a potential overlooked horse if their reasoning made sense.
Started betting only when I saw that overlap from my shortlist. Small bets still. But guess what? Hit a nice exacta. Then another decent win placing. Felt solid, not like luck.
Big Win (& Reality Check)
Late in the season, saw strong overlap on this horse nobody was really buzzing about. 8-1 morning line. My shortlist sources loved it, citing jockey switch and pace setup. Did my own quick check – form looked good, trainer solid. Put down a bit more than usual (but still sane!).
That horse won. Clean. Paid $18.60 on a $2 win bet. Felt amazing! Cashed that ticket, hands shaking a bit.
Here’s the crucial part though: That win didn’t come from magic or one secret source. It came from weeks of tracking free stuff, identifying the rarely useful bits through my own grunt work, and combining them cautiously. It wasn’t free money, it was earned data. And I lost plenty testing before finding my little niche. Season ended with a nice profit, but only because I tracked, stayed small, and finally understood how to use the flood of free picks instead of just drowning in it.
