Alright, let’s talk about these survivor pool picks. Seems simple, right? Just pick a winner each week. Ha! If only. I’ve been doing these for years, and let me tell you, it’s a grinder. It’s not just about picking the team with the biggest point spread, though I see plenty of folks crash and burn doing just that.
My Early Days and Costly Mistakes
When I first started, yeah, I was one of those guys. I’d look at the schedule, see a team favored by 10 points, and slam dunk, that was my pick. Sometimes it worked. A lot of times, especially early in the season when things are still shaky, it blew up in my face. I remember one year, out by Week 3. Embarrassing. That’s when I realized I had to get a bit more serious about it, or at least smarter.
Figuring Out My System
So, I started to develop a bit of a routine. It’s nothing groundbreaking, probably what a lot of the serious players do, but it’s what works for me. It’s a process, you know?
First thing I do, usually Tuesday morning, is pull up the full week’s schedule. Just get a lay of the land. See who’s playing who, who’s at home, who’s on the road.
Then, I start digging into the matchups. I don’t just look at the point spreads anymore. I look at moneyline odds too. That gives you a clearer picture of what the oddsmakers really think the chances of an outright win are. A team might be -7, but if their moneyline is super high, like -350 or more, that’s a stronger signal for a survivor pick than a team that’s -7 but only -280 on the moneyline, if that makes sense.
Here’s a big one: I always, always check which teams I’ve already used. Sounds basic, but when you’re in a few pools, or just not paying close attention, it’s easy to forget. I keep a simple list. Team X – Week 1. Team Y – Week 2. Saves a lot of headaches, trust me. I learned that the hard way, almost submitted a duplicate pick once. Caught it at the last second.
Thinking Ahead – The Long Game
This is where I think a lot of people mess up. They burn their best teams too early. You see the Kansas City Chiefs playing some bottom-dweller in Week 2, and they’re a huge favorite. Easy pick, right? Maybe. But what if you could save the Chiefs for Week 10 when the options are slim and they have another cupcake matchup? That’s future value. I try to find a safe pick, sure, but also one that doesn’t cripple my options down the line.
- Look for decent home favorites.
- Avoid road teams if there’s a comparable home favorite.
- Try not to pick against teams coming off a bye week if they’re already good.
I also glance at who the public is picking. Some weeks, if a massive chunk of the pool is on one team, and I’m a bit iffy on them, I might pivot. Going against the grain can be risky, but if that popular pick loses, you gain a huge advantage. Other times, if a pick feels super solid and everyone is on it, well, sometimes you just gotta roll with the crowd to survive.
And injuries! Good lord, you have to check injury reports. Especially later in the week. A starting quarterback being out, or even a key defensive player, that can change everything. I usually make a tentative pick early in the week and then confirm it or change it Thursday or Friday once the injury situations are clearer.
It’s Still a Bit of a Crapshoot
Let me tell you, even with all this prep, survivor pools can still kick you in the teeth. I remember a few seasons ago, I was cruising. Had my picks mapped out for weeks in advance, felt like a genius. Then Week 7 came. My “can’t lose” pick, a 13-point favorite at home, laid an absolute egg. Lost to a team that was 1-5. I just stared at the screen. All that planning, out the window. That’s the nature of this beast. You can do all the homework, make the “right” pick on paper, and still get bounced.
So, yeah, that’s kind of my process. It’s evolved over time, mostly through trial and error, and a few painful losses that taught me valuable lessons. There’s no magic formula. It’s about being thorough, thinking ahead, and hoping for a little bit of luck to go your way. Don’t overthink it to the point of paralysis, but definitely don’t just wing it either. Find that balance.
